Donald Trump and Xi Jinping rarely agree on anything. Different systems, different rhetoric, different visions of power. Yet when it comes to Canada building cars, the two men just so happens to land on the exact same uncomfortable conclusion from very different directions. Neither truly wants it to happen.
That shared reality is becoming harder to ignore as global auto manufacturing enters its most disruptive era in decades.
Trump has never been subtle about his view of the North American auto industry. When he talks about cars, he talks about geography and jobs, and in his mind, those jobs belong south of the border.
He has repeatedly made it clear that he wants vehicles built in the United States, not in Canada, even if that means unraveling long standing trade agreements like CUSMA. To Trump, Canadian auto plants are not partners in an integrated supply chain. They are competitors siphoning away American manufacturing strength.
Xi’s Strategy: China’s Global Auto Dominance
Xi’s position is quieter but far more consequential.
JAC Yiwei Chinese EV.
Image Credit: JustAnotherCarDesigner — Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia.
China’s global auto strategy is not about Canada specifically. It is about scale, dominance, and dependency. Beijing has poured enormous state resources into turning its automakers into export juggernauts, not just in electric vehicles but across the entire automotive spectrum.
The goal is not simply to sell cars abroad. China may not say it as it thinks like—like Trump—but Beijing’s ultimate goal is to reshape who builds them at all.
This is already playing out across major markets. In Europe, Chinese automakers went from a fringe presence to double digit market share in a remarkably short time.
In Brazil, they have surged past established European and Japanese brands, capturing more than a third of vehicle imports and dominating the electric vehicle segment. China isn’t just talking—these aren’t theoretical threats. They are measurable shifts.
Canada Caught Between Two Forces
Canada sits awkwardly between these two forces.
Ford Super Duty
Photo Courtesy: Autorepublika.
On one side is the United States, where political pressure is growing to pull manufacturing back home, even from close allies. On the other is China, whose export machine thrives on entering markets with heavily subsidized vehicles that domestic producers struggle to compete against. In both scenarios, Canada loses strategic relevance as a manufacturing hub.
The irony is that Canada once punched above its weight in auto production. A generation ago, it built nearly three million vehicles annually. Today that figure has fallen to around 1.3 million. Brazil, now feeling the full force of Chinese competition, produces roughly twice that number. If a country with Brazil’s scale is feeling exposed, Canada’s vulnerability is obvious.
Trump’s approach is blunt force economics. Build here or lose access. His message to automakers is simple. If you want to sell to Americans, invest in American factories. Canada becomes collateral damage in a political argument framed as economic nationalism.
Neta U Chinese EV SUV.
Image Credit: Jengtingchen — Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia.
China’s approach is more strategic and arguably more dangerous. By flooding markets with low-cost vehicles backed by state support, it erodes domestic manufacturing ecosystems over time. Once factories close and supply chains weaken, rebuilding them becomes nearly impossible. Consumers may celebrate cheaper cars in the short term, but the long-term cost is industrial dependency.
The Convergence
That is where Trump and Xi converge, intentionally or not.
Both paths lead to a future where Canada builds fewer cars. One shifts production south. The other crowds it out entirely. In either case, Canada is left choosing between integration and irrelevance.This is not just an economic debate. It is about sovereignty, employment, and technological leadership. More than vehicles of transportation, cars are now rolling computers, data collectors, and energy platforms. Losing the ability to build them means losing influence over critical infrastructure.
The question facing Canada, and by extension North America, is not whether Chinese cars are good or affordable. Many are. The real question is whether hollowing out domestic manufacturing is a price worth paying for cheaper sheet metal and software.
Trump says he wants the jobs. Xi wants the market. Neither wants Canada in the driver’s seat.