March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.03 (+0.22%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +21.00 (+5.58%).
Sugar prices moved higher on Friday as the recent selloff pushed prices into oversold territory, prompting some technical buying. March London sugar settled sharply higher on fund short covering as Friday was the last trading day for the March London ICE white sugar #5 contract.
On Thursday, sugar prices extended their 5-month-long plunge and posted 5.25-year nearest-futures lows. Concerns that a global sugar surplus will persist are hammering prices. Last Wednesday, analysts from sugar trader Czarnikow said they expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said on January 29 that they expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. Also, StoneX said last Friday it expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26.
Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-January rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.236 MMT. Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.78% in 2025/36 from 48.15% in 2024/25.
The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported January 19 that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. The ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, as India experienced its strongest monsoon season in five years. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar prices have been undercut amid prospects of higher Indian sugar exports. On Friday, India’s government allowed an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on top of 1.5 MMT allowed in November. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.