Over the last several weeks, North Jersey residents have faced dangerous, frigid and even record-breaking temperatures.
Now, nearly halfway through the final third of meteorological winter, things are finally looking up. According to the National Weather Service, forecasters are predicting a 33% to 40% chance of above normal temperatures in North Jersey for Feb. 18 through 24.
But before we get to that, let’s take a look back at the last several weeks, during which ice could be seen hanging from the Great Falls in Paterson and floating in large chunks through the Hudson River, disrupting the NYC Ferry service.
Numerous water main breaks were reported to Veolia Water following the massive Jan. 25 snowstorm, which dropped more than a foot of snow across much of the region, among other things.
The point is, it’s definitely been cold here in North Jersey. But how has this winter actually compared to previous years? Here’s what we know so far.
How cold has it been so far this winter?
To determine the average temperatures in North Jersey so far this winter, New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson analyzed data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
The data is applicable to counties within New Jersey’s northern climate division, which includes Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, Hudson and Essex counties.
Here’s a look at the numbers.
December 2025
December saw an average temperature of 28.9 degrees across North Jersey, Robinson said. This was 5.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 average.
The month ranked as the 40th coldest December since records began in 1895 and was the coldest December since 2000.
January 2026
January saw an average temperature of 24.8 degrees, 4.1 degrees below normal, according to Robinson. The month ranked as the 39th coldest January on record and was the coldest January since 2014.
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Feb. 1-10, 2026
The first 10 days of February averaged 16.6. degrees, approximately 13 degrees below normal. Data is not available to provide a ranking for this period of time, Robinson said. However, the month will not challenge the all-time February record, which was 14.9 degrees in 1934.
Additionally, with temperatures expected to rise much closer to normal during the remainder of the month, Robinson said it is «exceedingly unlikely» that February 2026 will average below the 18.8 degrees that we saw in February 2015.
«However, I would not be surprised to see it rank as the coldest February since 2015,» he added.
How does this winter compare to previous years?
While it is too early for a full winter temperature summary, Robinson said that it is certain the winter of 2025-2026 will be among the coldest of the past several decades.
«It will be far from North Jersey’s coldest on record but may make the top third of coldest winters,» he said in an emailed statement. «This is a rarity this century, one where winter temperatures have on average been considerably higher than most 20th century winters.»
When does meteorological winter end?
Feb. 28 will mark the end of meteorological winter, which is used by meteorologists to categorize the coldest three months of the year.
Astronomical winter, on the other hand, will end with the spring equinox on March 20.