Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils reacts following a three-point basket during the second half against the Clemson Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 14, 2026 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Outside the top 100 of KenPom, Likely to Miss the ACCT
18. Pittsburgh (Prev: 18, 2-11): Pittsburgh had a bad week losing by 16 and 14 to Duke and UNC, respectively.
17. Georgia Tech (Prev: 16, 2-11): Losers of 6 straight and 9 of 10, the bottom has dropped out for Georgia Tech. They took blowout losses to both Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
16. Boston College (Prev: 17, 2-10): Boston College got both West coast teams at home and despite that exaggerated home court advantage couldn’t beat either of them.
15. Notre Dame (Prev: 15, 3-10): After suffering an 8-point loss to SMU, the Irish crushed GT. Although they haven’t been good, they deserve to be placed in a totally different tier than the bottom three teams in the conference.
14. Stanford (Prev: 11, 5-8): Stanford needed to sweep Boston College and Wake Forest to have a real shot at making the tournament. They beat the Eagles but lost at Wake. Earlier this year, Stanford beat Minnesota and St. Louis back-to-back. They also knocked off Louisville and Virginia Tech back-to-back. Now they’ve lost six of eight with the only wins coming against Georgia Tech and Boston College.
13. Wake Forest (Prev: 14, 4-8): The Deacons throttled Georgia Tech. Then, Juke Harris went 12-13 from the FT line as the Demon Deacons killed Stanford’s tournament chances. The Demon Deacons won despite shooting a paltry 4-17 from 3. It was a good week for the Deacons.
12. California (Prev: 10, 6-7): Cal needed to sweep this Yankee swing against Syracuse and Boston College. After being dead even in the first half and second half, Cal lost at Syracuse in OT.
11. Syracuse (Prev: 13, 6-7): Syracuse beat Cal — likely popping their NCAA tournament bubble — and then edged SMU — putting them on the bubble. They’re not going to make the tournament themselves, but they’re the worst kind of spoiler. They’re playing well now, but their metrics are bad because they were bad earlier in the year. This is exactly the kind of thing that has hurt the ACC the past few years.
10. Virginia Tech (Prev: 9, 6-7): Virginia Tech was wildly hot from 3 (11-21) at Clemson while the Tigers couldn’t even make a free throw. It resulted in a big upset win that gave them tournament life. They immediately wasted their good fortunate by getting blown out at home to FSU.
9. Florida State (Prev: 12, 5-7): The Seminoles started the season 7-11, effectively ending their postseason hopes. They then went 5-1 entering this week. They held a late lead against Virginia couldn’t hold off the talented Cavaliers and lost at home. They rebounded by going to Blacksburg and blowing out the Hokies. Florida State’s poor start renders them a spoiler of the worst kind. They’re actually very good right now but only 82 in the NET rankings. They’ll be a Quad 3 game for Clemson meaning little credit will be given for beating FSU, but it is devastating if you lose to them. Teams in this tier hurt conference tournament bids and FSU is the most over-the-top example.
8. SMU (Prev: 7, 6-6): The Mustangs beat Notre Dame but lost a close one to Syracuse to drop them to .500 in ACC play. Samet Yigitoglu fouled out which played a role since he is such a good rim protector, rebounder, and true center. The loss makes their NCAA tournament hopes very questionable. Despite being 6-6, it is important to remember the other losses have come to Duke (2x), Clemson, Louisville, and Virginia. Louisville and Miami are the only tournament teams left on their schedule and both are at home. As long as SMU doesn’t panic, a 5-1 finish to push them to 11-7 is possible and their tournament hopes would then be fine.
7. NC State (Prev: 3, 9-4): Did anyone have a worse week than NC State? After getting completely obliterated by Louisville, they blew a lead in the final minute to Miami. More on them in the Louisville and Miami sections, but it was a brutal 0-2 week that ended with Will Wade insulting GT and calling his team soft.
6. North Carolina (Prev: 2, 8-4): Following last weekend’s big win against Duke, the Tar Heels went to Coral Gables and lost to Miami. To add injury to insult, they lost Caleb Wilson to a broken hand in the game. They haven’t shared a clear timeline, but he is an exceptional player and without him they aren’t a top 5 team in the ACC. They blew out Pitt at home on Saturday, but everyone does that these days.
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5. Clemson (Prev: 5, 10-3): Like NC State and UNC, the Tigers had a horrible week. They avoid dropping in the power rankings — even with Miami and Louisville jumping them — only because NC State and UNC had it worse. Clemson gave an out-of-character, lifeless defensive performance in the first half against Virginia Tech and found themselves down by 7 at halftime. The defense looked better in the second half, but hot 3-point shooting from VT and poor FT shooting made a comeback impossible.
Clemson then went to Duke and played an elite first half defensively, but the offense was stunted. RJ Godfrey and the other posts looked like the low-key stars that they are, but Clemson’s guard play was abysmal. Dillon Hunter’s slump continues. Hunter, Jestin Porter, Butta Johnson, and Ace Buckner all had just 4 points each. Buckner at least attacked the basket and created opportunities, but he missed two layups. Clemson’s guard play has to be at least average or this could snowball.
4. Miami (Prev: 8, 9-3): This was a tremendous week for the Hurricanes. Their tournament chances were barely better than 50-50 before this week, but now they’re a near lock. After an exciting back-and-forth game against UNC went their way, it seemed like NC State would knock them off. NC State held a 7-point lead with under a minute left and I turned it off. Miami got an and-1, a put back, and then got fouled on a 3-point shot.
3. Louisville (Prev: 6, 8-4): Louisville was absolutely dominant in a 118-77 win over NC State. Mikel Brown Jr. had 45 points and Ryan Conwell added 31. NC State is an offense-first team, but their defense really got exposed by the Cardinals. Louisville has elite upside which is what has made some of their struggles this year so vexing.
The Cardinals then went to Texas and got an 11-point non-conference win over Baylor on Saturday. They were tied at halftime, but Louisville owned the second half. Brown scored 29 and Hadley delivered 20 points. Louisville is all the way up to 14 in KenPom. They’re not super consistent, but their offense is explosive and they have the talent to make a run from around a 6-seed.
2. Virginia (Prev: 4, 10-2): The Wahoos have pushed their win streak to six with close wins over Florida State and Ohio State. The way Florida State is playing, that feels like a Quad 1 game even though it ranks only as a Quad 2. They then turned around and played a non-conference game in Nashville against Ohio State — who is on the bubble. It was a back-and-forth game where Virginia made the big defensive plays late. Ryan Odom has done an amazing job and shows that in modern college basketball there’s no reason to wait four and five years for a coach to figure it out if you give them the appropriate monetary support. They’re now up to 20 in KenPom and are extremely consistent and well-balanced. They should be at least a 5-seed and really at 22-3 overall deserve better than that. At some point, winning has to count.
1. Duke (Prev: 1, 12-1): We considered dropping Duke after their upset loss to UNC but held them strong at #1. This week it proves wise as they bounced back with blowout wins over Pitt and Clemson while the teams behind them stumbled. Cameron Boozer’s offensive efficiency gets the attention and it is well-deserved, but their team defense is what makes them a real National Championship contender.