China’s carbon dioxide emissions have now been flat or falling for nearly two years, raising fresh questions over whether the world’s biggest emitter has reached a turning point.
Emissions fell one per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and likely to have declined by around 0.3 per cent over the year as a whole. That keeps them slightly below the record levels reached in early 2024, when China’s emissions last peaked.
The figures come from new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief, which tracks monthly energy production, fuel use, and industrial output to estimate near real-time emissions trends. This is the longest such stretch on record that has not been driven by an economic slowdown in the country.
“I think it’s clear that emissions have plateaued, but there is a question mark about the next couple of years since the government is officially only targeting a peak in coal consumption around 2027, and in general even a plateau means there could be year-to-year ups and downs due to seasonal factors,” Lauri Myllyvirta, the centre’s lead analyst, told The Independent.
The stabilisation has come despite continued growth in electricity demand. Power consumption rose by 520 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025. But new clean generation more than covered that increase. Solar output rose 43 per cent year-on-year, wind generation 14 per cent, and nuclear eight per cent, together supplying roughly 530TWh of additional electricity – slightly more than the growth in demand.
As a result, coal-fired generation fell by 1.9 per cent and overall power-sector emissions dropped by 1.5 per cent. Emissions from transport declined by three per cent, while cement and other building materials fell by seven per cent. Metals also recorded a three per cent decline.