While President Donald Trump speaks dismissively about the future of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), some of the nation’s top experts in American trade relations say the automotive industry’s future hangs in the balance as the trade agreement goes up for review in July.
Speaking from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s 32nd Annual Automotive Insight Symposium in Detroit on Feb. 5, Kevin Brady, the former U.S. representative for Texas’ 8th Congressional District and the former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, and Chad Bown, the former chief economist at the U.S. State Department, voiced concerns about an agreement whose future is uncertain.
The U.S. Trade Representative, a body of federal experts responsible for overseeing trade deals, will hold a joint review of the trade agreement with the Mexico and Canada governments this summer. According to Brady and Bown, several key issues must be addressed in the refined agreement, though predicting the outcome of the review is a task neither dared to do during an hour-long discussion hosted by Kristin Dziczek, a policy adviser for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Maintaining the agreement
Leading up to the review, Bown and Brady said that automotive executives and policymakers both are grappling with a process where details remain unclear, though economic stakes are unmistakably high.
«This is the most consequential free trade agreement on the planet,» said Brady, arguing that USMCA has become the backbone of North American competitiveness as China continues to dominate the global auto industry.
Brady noted that Mexico and Canada must find a way to leverage the trade agreement to compete together globally against China. Mexico and Canada combined are the United States’ top export markets, investors and suppliers, accounting for nearly $900 billion in annual trade.
«If you were a successful business and you had a customer who was not just your best customer, but also your biggest investor, your most important supplier, what would you do with that relationship?» Brady said. «Would you discard it, or would you build upon it and strengthen it, especially when you’ve got China out there eager to eat our lunch?»
Brady later added that the most important outcome from the review is that USMCA stays in place — whatever form it may take.
«There is no question the top priority for the auto industry is to preserve the design of USMCA going forward,» Brady said.
Bown, who served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of State under Joe Biden from January 2024 to January 2025, agreed with Brady, though he added that he would hope to see the United States expand trade agreements to other countries, too, to counter the dominance of China.